Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2026-01-18 81943.914947 86480.745100 91017.359891 95890.986851 100975.312375 106119.814155 111715.458173
2026-01-25 74437.334041 81349.852205 88454.774914 96293.615120 104689.801420 113403.369157 123120.098023
2026-02-01 68744.801345 77249.129424 86182.763125 96247.287503 107250.098210 118893.064996 132124.572834
2026-02-08 64870.940792 74613.591322 85035.482205 96980.892799 110260.316020 124535.932291 141008.557791
2026-02-15 61208.388863 71872.770323 83465.289448 96955.222353 112172.058731 128755.547251 148143.905893
2026-02-22 58959.485501 70509.688397 83243.882018 98259.995602 115414.585858 134331.963842 156699.687650
2026-03-01 56751.199350 69029.880716 82745.319776 99116.674192 118037.564418 139127.965779 164320.658000
2026-03-08 54240.210586 67054.504859 81547.664296 99048.216320 119496.457941 142520.128664 170285.380150
2026-03-15 52204.574434 65524.999849 80766.717008 99369.421611 121326.004802 146278.027246 176632.352730
2026-03-22 51046.999016 64965.482512 81060.806773 100896.878121 124523.222938 151596.961947 184790.257178
2026-03-29 49772.376252 64196.711974 81047.866813 102009.698213 127194.983150 156284.443129 192213.930107
2026-04-05 48406.978969 63253.368510 80769.868212 102756.162137 129394.212545 160395.878909 198958.760636
2026-04-12 46788.022825 61955.213487 80031.170730 102927.432922 130903.253937 163711.194715 204811.103403
2026-04-19 45307.059005 60774.915998 79390.206889 103178.397235 132481.449793 167098.453246 210759.668800
2026-04-26 43751.325487 59443.299974 78511.218200 103089.749583 133608.398861 169919.868364 216021.158415
2026-05-03 42704.257113 58716.053931 78347.689002 103856.563599 135763.899617 173977.776350 222788.469747
2026-05-10 41345.140090 57540.482303 77578.515205 103827.382351 136904.191916 176780.827040 228024.586173
2026-05-17 40710.290495 57276.435050 77940.767618 105206.518709 139791.523537 181730.876906 235914.508161
2026-05-24 39899.949603 56752.318793 77945.726044 106112.116388 142074.150893 185937.020049 242906.629220
2026-05-31 38702.676334 55678.967613 77209.925175 106039.719977 143098.476274 188569.843270 247950.785718
2026-06-07 37741.286437 54888.813208 76813.307244 106379.282818 144628.385642 191825.739942 253777.256423
2026-06-14 37362.742494 54865.848396 77406.018297 107993.908643 147789.185184 197138.790421 262207.497582
2026-06-21 36823.136737 54604.920630 77670.451145 109170.079280 150384.727035 201749.353093 269780.366175